Affichage des archives de jeudi, 13 juin 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 164 publié à 2200Z le 13 Jun 2002
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 12-2100Z au 13-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9991 (S20W09)
produced a C1.5/Sf flare at 12/2119 UTC with associated discrete
frequency radio bursts. Region 9987 (S15W71) continues its gradual
decay and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. The only
other significant disk activity was a five degree disappearing
filament at S14E18.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9987 and Region 9991 have a slight chance of
producing low level M-class activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 12-2100Z au 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on day two of the forecast period due to
coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 14 Jun au 16 Jun
Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 13 Jun 133
Prévisionnel 14 Jun-16 Jun 135/140/145
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 13 Jun 179
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/010
Estimé Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/010
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 006/008-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 14 Jun au 16 Jun
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 10% | 20% | 15% |
Tempête mineure | 01% | 10% | 05% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 15% | 25% | 20% |
Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 05% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PLAIN:
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.
<< Aller à l'aperçu quotidien