Affichage des archives de lundi 20 mai 2002

Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 May 20 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 140 publié à 2200Z le 20 May 2002

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9961 (S22E62) produced two M-class flares and one X-class flare during the past 24 hours. The X-flare was an X2/2n at 1527 UTC and was impulsive. Nonetheless this flare was associated with a narrow-width CME from the southeast limb. The first M-flare was an M4 at 1029 UTC and the second was an M5 at 1053 UTC. Both of these events were impulsive and were attributed to 9961 based on SOHO/EIT data. Region 9961 appears to be a compact, magnetically complex group which has at least a gamma classification, and possibly a magnetic delta. Region 9957 (N09E22) continues to be the largest group on the disk and has a delta configuration in a compact collection of spots. A partial halo CME was observed in C2 at 19/2026 UTC and was centered over the southwest limb. EIT images at the same time confirmed a front-side source from the southwest part of the disk.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate, but there is a chance for an additional major flare event from either of Region 9961 or 9957.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period from 1500-1800 UTC. An interval of enhanced solar wind flow passed the ACE solar wind spacecraft beginning at 0257 UTC and lasted about 10 hours. The Bz magnetic field component was mostly negative with typical values between -5 nT and -10 nT. The onset of the this flow at Earth caused a sudden impulse at 0342 UTC, which measured 22 nT on the Boulder magnetometer.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field should be mostly unsettled tomorrow and quiet to unsettled on the second day. Activity on the third day is expected increase slightly to unsettled with some isolated active periods due to possible effects from today's partial halo CME that began at 19/2026 UTC.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 May au 23 May
Classe M80%80%80%
Classe X20%20%20%
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       20 May 171
  Prévisionnel   21 May-23 May  170/170/165
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        20 May 184
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 19 May  008/018
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 20 May  010/015
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  008/010-005/008-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 May au 23 May
A. Latitudes moyennes
Tempête mineure10%10%15%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%05%10%
B. Hautes latitudes
Tempête mineure10%10%20%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%05%15%

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