Affichage des archives de samedi, 11 mai 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 May 11 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 131 publié à 2200Z le 11 May 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9937
(S09W38) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1132 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep of 415 km/s and minor discrete radio bursts.
Increased magnetic complexity is apparent in this region with the
hint of a delta forming in the dominant spot, seen in the trailing
portion of spot cluster. Region 9934 (S17W59) was fairly active
today, producing multiple C-class flares. The largest was a C3/Sf
flare occurring at 11/1738 UTC. This region remains the most
complex region on the disk. New Region 9950 (S06E44) produced a
C2/Sf flare at 11/1650 UTC. Region 9949 (S16W06) is also a newly
numbered region.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9934 and 9937 are both complex enough to
produced M-class flare activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. Data from
the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) showed an increase in the
solar wind speed from roughly 350 to 450 km/s beginning at
approximately 11/0915 UTC. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained strongly negative for several
hours thereafter. A sudden impulse of 41 nT was observed at the
Boulder Magnetometer at 11/1028 UTC. Major storm conditions were
observed at high latitudes from 11/1100 through 11/1800 UTC.
Uncertain as to the source(s) of the activity, although multiple
CME's were seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery on the eighth and ninth.
Source regions for CME's believed to have been from both the east
and west limbs.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions may occur on day three of the
forecast due to the M1/Sf flare that occurred at 11/1132 UTC.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 May au 14 May
| Classe M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 11 May 188 Prévisionnel 12 May-14 May 190/195/190 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 11 May 187
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 10 May 019/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 11 May 035/040 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 012/015-008/010-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 May au 14 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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