Affichage des archives de lundi, 29 avril 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Apr 29 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 119 publié à 2200Z le 29 Apr 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several low, optically
uncorrelated C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C4 at
29/0940Z. The likely sources for most of the discrete X-ray bursts
were Regions 9915 (N12W53) and 9919 (N15W13). No appreciable changes
were noted in these or the remaining active regions on the visible
disk. The overall enhanced X-ray baseline is likely due to the
return of several active regions on or near the east limb.
Considerable CME activity was noted off the east limb over the past
24 hours. New Regions 9927 (S28E68), and 9928 (N18E75) were numbered
today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Continued C-class flares are likely from Regions 9915 and 9919. The
potential for activity at or near the east limb will increase over
the coming days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes. The disturbed conditions are due to a
high speed coronal hole stream that began on the 27th.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expect
to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 30 Apr au 02 May
| Classe M | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Classe X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 29 Apr 153 Prévisionnel 30 Apr-02 May 155/160/165 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 29 Apr 193
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 28 Apr 014/019 Estimé Afr/Ap 29 Apr 008/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/010-005/008-008/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 30 Apr au 02 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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