Affichage des archives de jeudi, 18 avril 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Apr 18 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 108 publié à 2200Z le 18 Apr 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only C-class flares occurred
over the past 24 hours. Some of these flares did not have an obvious
source on the visible disk and may have originated from beyond the
limb. Region 9906 (S14W55) remains large and complex but has shown
some sunspot decay and magnetic simplification. New Regions 9911
(S13E23) and 9912 (N11E28) were numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected in Region 9906. A major flare
in this region remains a possibility.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels in
response to the CME that impacted the Earth early yesterday. ACE
solar wind information suggests that this CME has passed. The
geomagnetic field is currently at active levels. Yesterday's greater
than 10 MeV proton event has ended: start 17/1530 UTC, maximum flux
(24 pfu) 17/1540 UTC, and end 18/0035 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the end of 18
April UTC. Another CME is expected to impact the Earth early on 19
April UTC from an LDE/CME that occurred on 17 April. Minor to major
storm conditions are possible for the 24-48 hours following this
CME's arrival. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to
unsettled to active levels by the end of the 3-day forecast period.
Another greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region 9906
generates a major flare.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 19 Apr au 21 Apr
| Classe M | 75% | 50% | 40% |
| Classe X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 18 Apr 188 Prévisionnel 19 Apr-21 Apr 180/175/170 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 18 Apr 201
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 17 Apr 027/041 Estimé Afr/Ap 18 Apr 045/050 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 040/040-030/050-012/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 19 Apr au 21 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 25% | 15% | 05% |
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