Affichage des archives de samedi, 6 avril 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Apr 06 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 096 publié à 2200Z le 06 Apr 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9893 (N19E40)
produced the largest flare during the period, a C9/1F flare
occurring at 06/0619 UTC. This region has become slightly more
complex during the period and has also seen an increase in penumbral
coverage. Many minor C-class flares from the more ominous regions
were seen on the disk today as well. One worthy of mention, a C2/Sf
flare that materialized from an area void of spots (S17E48) also
produced a weak Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
296 km/s. LASCO imagery doesn't depict any geoeffective potential
to this event. New Regions 9897 (S01W02), 9898 (S19E66), and 9899
(N18E72) were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. A chance for an isolated major flare exists
due to the magnetic complexity seen in several regions.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast. A slight chance of
isolated active conditions exist for days two and three. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux dropped below event levels at
05/2140 UTC (max flux 2140 pfu's at 05/1725 UTC) , although levels
remain elevated at the time of this writing.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 07 Apr au 09 Apr
| Classe M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 06 Apr 206 Prévisionnel 07 Apr-09 Apr 205/200/190 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 06 Apr 203
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 05 Apr 003/006 Estimé Afr/Ap 06 Apr 004/006 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 010/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 07 Apr au 09 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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