Affichage des archives de samedi, 23 mars 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Mar 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 082 publié à 2200Z le 23 Mar 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Frequent
C-class flares occurred. Region 9876 (S16E30) was the most active
area on the disk and produced occasional C-class subflares. It grew
during the period with increased area and magnetic complexity,
particularly in its trailer spots. Region 9878 (N10E43) produced a
long-duration C2/Sf flare at 23/0330 UTC with no significant radio
emission. This region grew at a gradual pace with a minor increase
in area and spot count. Region 9871 (S18W60) produced an isolated
subflare as it continued to gradually decay. New Region 9883
(N06E67) was numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an M-class flare from Region
9876. Major flare potential may increase in this region if its
current rate of growth continues.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Field
activity increased to unsettled to active levels following a sudden
impulse at 23/1137 UTC (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
22/2020 UTC continued. The preliminary maximum for this event was
16.2 pfu at 23/1320 UT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. However, brief active conditions may occur during 25 - 26
March. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early
in the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Mar au 26 Mar
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Mar 170 Prévisionnel 24 Mar-26 Mar 170/165/165 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Mar 211
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Mar 007/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Mar 010/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Mar au 26 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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