Affichage des archives de mercredi, 20 mars 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Mar 20 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 079 publié à 2200Z le 20 Mar 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long-duration C4 flare began
at 1544 UTC and lasted until 1919 UTC. The corresponding source on
the disk was not entirely certain but it seemed most likely to be
correlated to activity observed in Region 9866 (S08W73). Additional
C-class subflares occurred during the day, with many of these coming
from Region 9875. Region 9875 showed steady growth during the past
24 hours. Three new region were assigned today: 9876 (S16E65), 9877
(N18W29), and 9878 (N08E75).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until 1329 UTC when a sudden impulse
(SI) occurred. Since then the geomagnetic field has ranged from
quiet to active levels. The SI was caused by an interplanetary shock
which was seen at the ACE spacecraft at 1307 UTC. The disturbance is
most likely the result of the halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 at
18/0254 UTC. The shock also pushed the greater than 10 MeV proton
fluxes up to about 19 PFU at 1525 UTC. The proton event fluxes
dropped below event level at 1820 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. There is a
chance for some isolated active levels on the second day as a
possible response to yesterday's partial halo CME.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 Mar au 23 Mar
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 20 Mar 188 Prévisionnel 21 Mar-23 Mar 175/170/165 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 20 Mar 213
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 19 Mar 015/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 20 Mar 010/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 010/010-015/015-010/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 Mar au 23 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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