Affichage des archives de jeudi, 21 février 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Feb 21 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 052 publié à 2200Z le 21 Feb 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9825 (N13W90)
continued to be the region of primary concern as it rotated around
the NW limb. The three M-class flares this period all appear to have
originated from this region. The largest was an M3 at 21/1226Z. A
prominence erupted from this area at 21/0608Z, followed by a large
filament eruption at around 21/1100Z. Region 9335 (S09W75) grew
rather quickly this period and produced some small flares as it
approaches the west limb. New Regions 9838 (N05W18), 9839 (S16E06),
and 9840 (S12E72), were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. We may continue to experience activity
from behind the NW limb for the next day or so. Region 9835 has
potential to produce M-class activity with a small chance for a
major flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
protons at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated following the small
proton event that began and ended between 20/0730 - 0800Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one.
Active conditions are expected on day two due to an expected CME
passage associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return by day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 22 Feb au 24 Feb
| Classe M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 21 Feb 201 Prévisionnel 22 Feb-24 Feb 205/200/200 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 21 Feb 223
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 21 Feb 008/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 010/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 22 Feb au 24 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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