Affichage des archives de jeudi, 14 février 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Feb 14 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 045 publié à 2200Z le 14 Feb 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's flare activity
consisted of a few C-class flares. The largest was a C4/1f at 0142
UTC. Most of today's flare activity was produced by 9825 (N13E01).
9825 is currently the largest, most complex region on the disk and
continued to grow slowly. Region 9821 (S12W66) continues to decay.
Two new regions rotated into view: 9829 (S07E74), a small C-type
group, and 9830 (S22E73), a small H-type group. Numerous CMEs were
observed in LASCO imagery today. Of these, a CME that was first seen
in C2 at 14/0254 UTC was associated with disk activity in EIT in the
southwest quadrant, and appears to have at least some earthward
component.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
9825. There is a very slight chance for a major flare from 9825.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
to mostly unsettled is possible on day two due to coronal hole
effects. Day three is expected to be unsettled to slightly active
due to possible geoeffectiveness from today's CME that originated
from the southwest part of the solar disk.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 Feb au 17 Feb
| Classe M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 Feb 196 Prévisionnel 15 Feb-17 Feb 195/190/190 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 Feb 222
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/010 Estimé Afr/Ap 14 Feb 005/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 007/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 Feb au 17 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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