Affichage des archives de vendredi, 23 novembre 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Nov 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 327 publié à 2200Z le 23 Nov 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity reached high levels. Following
yesterday's M3/2B flare from Region 9698 (S24W82), a major flare
event occurred in Region 9704 (S17W51). This M9/2n long duration
event peaked at 22/2330 UTC, and was associated with a 9700 sfu
tenflare, type-II and type-IV radio sweeps, and several erupting
filaments in the vicinity of the flare site. A subsequent full halo
CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery, and energetic proton flux
levels were also significantly enhanced by this event, adding to the
above-threshold fluxes already caused by the prior flare. Most
other activity for the remainder of the period was limited to weak
C-class flares. New Region 9715 (N07E80) was numbered as it rotated
into view on the east limb.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low to moderate for the next three days. Region 9704
remains a potential source for an isolated major flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. A single
active period was observed at Boulder during 23/1200-1500 UTC.
Energetic proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was on the rise at the
beginning of the period, and achieved event thresholds for 100 MeV
integral flux above 1 pfu at 22/2250 UTC, and 10 MeV integral flux
above 10 pfu at 22/2320 UTC. Both events remain in progress, with
maximum 100 MeV integral flux of 4 pfu observed at 23/0850 UTC, and
maximum 10 MeV integral flux of 4800 pfu at 23/1400 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to active levels within 24 hours, and remain at
predominantly active levels for the next three days. Isolated minor
and major storm periods are possible. These increases are expected
in response to the various CME episodes of the last three days. The
energetic proton events are expected to persist. The 100 MeV
integral flux levels are expected to drop below threshold within 24
hours, while the 10 MeV integral flux levels are expected to remain
above threshold for at least 48 hours.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Nov au 26 Nov
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 95% | 75% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Nov 177 Prévisionnel 24 Nov-26 Nov 175/170/170 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Nov 218
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Nov 012/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 020/020-040/050-030/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Nov au 26 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 45% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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