Affichage des archives de jeudi, 25 octobre 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Oct 25 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 298 publié à 2200Z le 25 Oct 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z Solar Activity was at high levels. Region 9672
(S18W27) produced a X1/3B flare at 25/1502 UTC with associated Type
II (est. velocity 900 km/s) and Type IV events observed. SOHO/LASCO
imagery indicate a full halo CME with a plane of sky speed of 884
km/s. Region 9672 also produced three minor C-class flares. Region
9678 (N08E20) has grown significantly in the last 24 hours. This
region has increased in area coverage, spot count, and magnetic
complexity to 300 millionths, 35 spots, and Beta-Gamma-Delta
configuration, respectively. Other activity on the disc was six
minor C-class flares most of which came from Region 9672 and 9678.
New Region 9681 (S25E05) and Region 9682 (N09E70) were numbered
today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance for an isolated high condition.
Region 9672 and Region 9678 both have the potential of producing a
major flare. Both of these regions are active and magnetically
complex. New Region 9682 is just rotating on to the disc but
already appears to be a large and potentially complex region.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Shock arrival
from the two CMEs (M6/2N on 22/1502 UTC and X1/2B on 22/1759 UTC)
occurred at 25/0850 UTC with a sudden impulse of 22 nT recorded on
the Boulder magnetometer. A north directed Bz component to the
interplanetary magnetic field resulted in only unsettled conditions.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. Quiet to active
levels are expected on day one of the period. Analysis of the
X1/3B full halo CME on 25/1502 UTC indicates that shock arrival is
expected late on day two or early on day three of the period. Shock
arrival is expected to produce unsettled to minor storm levels for
day two and three of the period. Isolated major storm levels are
possible particularly at higher latitudes.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 Oct au 28 Oct
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 Oct 239 Prévisionnel 26 Oct-28 Oct 230/225/220 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 Oct 196
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 24 Oct 004/003 Estimé Afr/Ap 25 Oct 006/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 008/010-018/020-025/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 Oct au 28 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 50% | 50% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 45% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 20% | 20% |
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