Affichage des archives de lundi, 1 octobre 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Oct 01 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 274 publié à 2200Z le 01 Oct 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 30-2100Z au 01-2100Z Solar activity was high today. A long-duration M9
flare occurred at 01/0515 UTC in the vicinity of Region 9628
(S22W91). This flare produced a full halo CME from LASCO imagery as
well as a proton injection. Multiple discrete frequency radio
emissions were associated with the event. EIT imagery depicted an
excellent view of prominent loop structure that lasted through the
X-ray enhancement. Region 9628 is currently exiting the visible
disk. Four new region's were assigned today, Region's 9643
(S26W26), 9644 (N20W04), 9645 (S18E03), and 9646 (N12E42). All were
at least of Beta class magnetic complexity.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are probable.
The is also a chance for a major flare from Region 9632 (S21W73) as
it begins to exit the disk.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 30-2100Z au 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels due to a CME passage. A greater than 10 MeV proton event
began at 01/0255 UTC and continued at time of issue. At the close
of period the greater than 10 MeV flux was at 462 pfu and
increasing. This proton event was in response to the M9 flare
mentioned above.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next
two days due to CME effects. Mostly unsettled conditions are
expected on the final day of forecast. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue through most of the forecast
period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 Oct au 04 Oct
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | In Progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 Oct 217 Prévisionnel 02 Oct-04 Oct 210/205/205 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 Oct 177
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 01 Oct 035/040 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 020/020-030/030-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 Oct au 04 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 35% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 40% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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