Affichage des archives de jeudi, 23 août 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Aug 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 235 publié à 2200Z le 23 Aug 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9591
(S17E53) produced frequent, impulsive mid-level C-class flares with
minor radio emission. This region showed a magnetic delta structure
in its trailing sunspots and a weak delta in its interior spots.
Currently, Region 9591 spans about 30 degrees in longitude. However,
it appeared likely this region was comprised of two abutted sunspot
groups, which may be split into separate groups once this complex
rotates further into view. Minor polarity mixing was evident in
Regions 9582 (N28W33) and 9585 (N14W16), but both regions were
inactive as they showed signs of decay. The remaining active regions
were unremarkable. New Region 9593 (N00E01) was numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a good chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 9591. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from
this region.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels as
coronal hole effects subsided.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of
the period increasing to unsettled to active levels during the rest
of the period. There will be a slight chance for a proton event
during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of
the forecast period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Aug au 26 Aug
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Aug 170 Prévisionnel 24 Aug-26 Aug 175/180/180 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Aug 152
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Aug 014/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Aug 009/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 010/010-012/012-015/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Aug au 26 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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