Affichage des archives de mercredi, 15 août 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Aug 15 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 227 publié à 2200Z le 15 Aug 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 15/0243 UTC.
Region 9574 (S04W66) produced a C1/Sf at 15/1242 UTC. This region
remains the largest on the visible disk, but has decayed somewhat in
spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity since yesterday.
Most of the other numbered regions on the disk have also similarly
decayed or remained little changed, and quiet. Exceptions are
formerly spotless Region 9577 (N13W61), which had new spots emerge
today, and two newly numbered regions: 9581 (S28W09) and 9582
(N32E73).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. A small chance for
isolated moderate flare activity still exists for Region 9574 and
the newly emerged regions noted in Section 1A above.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mainly quiet, with isolated unsettled
periods. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate enhancement levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period. Thereafter, an onset of magnetic storming is anticipated
from the CME activity of 14 August, with active to minor storm
conditions and isolated major storm periods possible at higher
latitudes. Conditions are expected to return to predominantly
unsettled levels by day three. Moderate to high flux levels for
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit are also
possible throughout the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 16 Aug au 18 Aug
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 15 Aug 147 Prévisionnel 16 Aug-18 Aug 145/140/140 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 15 Aug 151
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 14 Aug 010/012 Estimé Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/009 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 015/015-025/025-017/017
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 16 Aug au 18 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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