Affichage des archives de samedi, 12 mai 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 May 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 132 publié à 2200Z le 12 May 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Several C-class events were observed. The largest of these was a
C5/Sf flare at 1210 UTC from Region 9454 (N13E46). Region 9454 is
currently the largest sunspot group on the disk and has some
magnetic complexity. Region 9455 (S16E03) grew steadily during the
past 24 hours and produced the majority of today's C-class events.
Newly assigned Region 9456 (N06W04) emerged on the disk during the
past 24 hours.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
during the next three days from any of regions 9454, 9455, or 9456.
Of these, Region 9455 appears to be the best candidate for continued
flare activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Unsettled to active levels predominated most of
the day, but the period from 0900-1500Z saw minor storm levels at
mid-latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours.
Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail during the second and
third days.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 May au 15 May
| Classe M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 May 138 Prévisionnel 13 May-15 May 140/142/144 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 May 167
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 May 005/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 May 025/035 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 015/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 May au 15 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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