Affichage des archives de lundi, 7 mai 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 May 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 127 publié à 2200Z le 07 May 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. X-ray flare activity consisted
of mid-sized C-class events from Region 9445 (S25W42). The region
possesses bright plage and a modest degree of magnetic complexity.
The most spectacular events of the day came from behind the west
limb. The LASCO coronagraph saw a dramatic cme moving westward at
about 07/1000 UTC. Somewhat later, another cme was launched in the
same approximate trajectory. This second event may have been related
to flare activity in Region 9445 (C3/Sf at 1220 UTC). Elsewhere, one
new region was numbered, 9452 (S09E67).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9445 may generate an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to minor storm levels. A
prolonged period of southward IMF, from approximately
06/2200-07/0800 UTC, spawned active to minor storm conditions at mid
and high latitudes. More normal conditions have occurred lately,
with quiet to unsettled conditions prevailing. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 07/1915 UTC, and is still in progress. This
activity is thought to be a result of the behind the limb CME seen
to occur near 07/1000 UTC. The maximum greater than 10 MeV flux of
this soft event is 15 pfu at 07/2100 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. This current disturbance should
weaken through the interval. The greater than 10 MeV protons should
slowly subside.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 May au 10 May
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 May 138 Prévisionnel 08 May-10 May 135/130/125 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 May 169
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 06 May 005/007 Estimé Afr/Ap 07 May 015/016 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 010/014-010/010-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 May au 10 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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