Affichage des archives de samedi, 14 avril 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Apr 14 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 104 publié à 2200Z le 14 Apr 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9415 (S22W72)
produced an M1/SF event during 14/1715-1828 UTC. Peak x-ray flux
occurred at 14/1811 UTC, after an extended and variable rise in flux
levels. Also observed were an associated Type-II sweep, 150 sfu
tenflare, eruptive prominence and bright surging on the limb.
Imagery from SOHO/LASCO indicated a subsequent CME, however not
appearing earth-directed. Region 9418 (N26W59) also produced a
subfaint flare during the event, and now exhibits some increase in
areal coverage and magnetic complexity. Two new regions were
numbered today: 9428 (N14W39) and 9429 (N09E62).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9415 and 9418 remain potential sources of
isolated major flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, primarily
due to lingering effects of the geomagnetic storm that commenced on
13 April. Greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels at 1415 UTC, and remained above threshold
through the end of the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase, with major storm levels possible during the
next 24 hours, due to an expected shock arrival from CME activity
observed on 12 April. Storm activity is expected to wane during the
following two days, with quiet to unsettled levels expected by the
end of the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 Apr au 17 Apr
| Classe M | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Classe X | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 Apr 139 Prévisionnel 15 Apr-17 Apr 140/145/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 Apr 166
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 13 Apr 031/036 Estimé Afr/Ap 14 Apr 020/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 030/040-020/030-010/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 Apr au 17 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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