Affichage des archives de jeudi, 12 avril 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Apr 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 102 publié à 2200Z le 12 Apr 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9415 (S22W43) produced
an X2 flare at 12/1028 UTC. This flare was not optically correlated
at the peak time of the event, however EIT imagery and later optical
flare observations have associated this flare with Region 9415. This
event was accompanied by Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 1200 sfu 10
cm radio burst, and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Region
9415 also produced an M1/1n event at 12/0304 UTC. Several other
regions developed into more complex sunspot classification groups,
but showed very little activity during the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 could possibly produce another
major flare during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels.
The geomagnetic field continued to be disturbed early in the period
due to CME shock arrivals at earth on 11 April. The storm subsided
to unsettled conditions toward the end of the period. The solar
radiation storm that was in progress for the last two days has been
extended by protons produced from today's X2 event. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was at high levels all period. The greater than
100 MeV protons reached threshold levels at 12/1305 UTC and remained
at or above threshold levels for the remainder of the period. A
polar cap absorption (PCA) event was in effect for most of the
period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the first part of the period
until the arrival of an earth directed CME from the M2/1f event that
occurred on 11/1326 UTC. This CME should arrive at earth sometime
late on 13 April or early 14 April UTC. A second CME from today's X2
event should arrive at earth late on 14 April or early 15 April UTC.
Both arrivals should produce active to major storm levels with brief
severe storm levels at high latitudes possible. The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the period.
The PCA event is expected to end during the latter half of the
period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 Apr au 15 Apr
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 80% | 60% | 25% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 Apr 149 Prévisionnel 13 Apr-15 Apr 150/145/140 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 Apr 167
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 Apr 069/060 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 Apr 045/050 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 040/020-050/050-025/040
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 Apr au 15 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 40% | 45% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 40% | 20% |
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