Affichage des archives de lundi, 2 avril 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Apr 02 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 092 publié à 2200Z le 02 Apr 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 01-2100Z au 02-2100Z Solar activity has been high. A pair of Class X
flares occurred at 02/1004 UTC and 02/1058 UTC. The first was in
Region 9393, now at N16W69. The second was likely in Region 9393
but it may have been near the southeast limb. A coronal mass
ejection extending 180 degrees in longitude along the west limb
occurred more-or-less in conjunction with the x-ray events. Region
9393 is little changed in appearance as it begins to rotate from
view over the limb although its apparent area is decreasing.
Sunspots have rotated into view at S21E58 (Region 9414) but so far
the spots appear to be simply structured. As the region becomes
more visible, further information about its structure will be
available.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. The possibility of major flares remains high in
Region 9393.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 01-2100Z au 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly active. A very small proton
enhancement of >10 MeV and >100 MeV particles occurred beginning at
about 02/1000 UTC. Fluxes have become constant at less than event
thresholds.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
possibility remains of a proton event if further major events occur
in Region 9393
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 03 Apr au 05 Apr
| Classe M | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 02 Apr 228 Prévisionnel 03 Apr-05 Apr 220/210/200 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 02 Apr 166
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 01 Apr 026/030 Estimé Afr/Ap 02 Apr 020/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 030/025-035/040-025/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 03 Apr au 05 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 28% | 28% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 18% | 15% | 12% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 08% | 08% | 08% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Tempête mineure | 18% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 08% | 08% | 08% |
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