Affichage des archives de dimanche, 26 novembre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Nov 26 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 331 publié à 2200Z le 26 Nov 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z Solar activity remained high. Region 9236 (N24W38)
produced an X4/2b at 26/1648 UTC. This flare included a Type II
radio sweep (1000 km/s estimated drift speed) and a 700 sfu radio
burst at 2695 MHz. This region also generated an M2/1f flare at
26/0308 UTC and several C-class subflares. The sunspot group remains
large and magnetically complex. Other disk regions were relatively
quiet.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Region 9236 is capable of producing another major flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
first of the expected CME's arrived at ACE at 26/0500 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress. A new maximum
of 923 pfu was observed at 26/1955 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV
protons exceeded the event threshold at 26/1640 UTC and reached a
peak of 1.2 pfu at 26/1650 UTC. These particles have since dropped
below event level.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at minor to major storm levels during the next 48
hours in response to the flare/CME activity of the last few days.
The greater than 10 MeV event is expected to remain in progress for
at least the next 24 hours. Another 100 MeV event is possible if
Region 9236 produces another significant flare.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 27 Nov au 29 Nov
| Classe M | 80% | 70% | 60% |
| Classe X | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Proton | 99% | 75% | 50% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 26 Nov 202 Prévisionnel 27 Nov-29 Nov 205/205/200 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 26 Nov 175
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 25 Nov 004/007 Estimé Afr/Ap 26 Nov 020/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 050/060-030/045-020/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 27 Nov au 29 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 20% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 50% | 30% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 20% | 50% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 40% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 60% | 35% | 05% |
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