Affichage des archives de samedi, 18 novembre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Nov 18 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 323 publié à 2200Z le 18 Nov 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9235 (N12E34)
produced an M1/1f flare at 18/1325Z, with an associated Type II
radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME
directed off the east limb, though not appearing to be earth
directed. Region 9231 (S24E05) also produced an M1/Sf flare at
18/1100Z, as well as an LDE C2/1f flare at 17/2051Z, which was in
progress at the end of last period. Other activity included
numerous C-class flares from regions 9235, 9231, and 9227 (S09W85).
Both regions 9235 and 9231 exhibited increased spot counts. Two new
regions were numbered today, 9236 (N19E71) and 9237 (N10W19).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9231 and 9235 are the most likely sources of
isolated M-class activity. Today's newly numbered regions may also
be a source of moderate activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with a single interval of
unsettled conditions observed at higher latitudes during
18/1800-2100Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above
threshold for most of the day until falling below at 18/2025Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active, with minor storming possible
at higher latitudes, due to the influence of a favorably positioned
coronal hole through day one and into day two. Activity should
decrease to predominately unsettled levels by day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 19 Nov au 21 Nov
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 18 Nov 177 Prévisionnel 19 Nov-21 Nov 180/185/185 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 18 Nov 171
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 17 Nov 003/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 015/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 19 Nov au 21 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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