Affichage des archives de samedi, 11 novembre 2000

Rapport d'activité solaire

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 316 publié à 2200Z le 11 Nov 2000

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares produced during the past 24 hours. The first was a C2/Sf at 0012Z from Region 9218 (N21W90+), and the second was a C2 which was not reported optically. An examination of SOHO/EIT images during the second event strongly suggest that it also originated from Region 9218. Region 9221 (S12W20) showed some magnetic flux development in the leader part of the group and Region 9227 (S12E12) displayed new spot growth just behind the leader spot. All regions currently on the disk are quiet and stable.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind measurements from ACE indicate the onset of a high-speed, low density flow that is consistent with a favorably positioned solar coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field, however, has been either northwards or has been fluctuating weakly between -3 nT and +5 nT, and the geomagnetic response so far has been weak. The proton event at greater than 100 MeV ended at 0240Z today (based on GOES-8 flux dropping below 1 pfu). The greater than 10 MeV protons decreased during the past 24 hours but continue to be above the event threshold of 10 pfu, with a current value at 2100Z of 23.6 pfu.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active during the next 24 hours due to possible enhanced activity from the high speed solar wind stream. A decline to mostly unsettled is expected for the second and third days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime during the next 24 hours.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 Nov au 14 Nov
Classe M15%15%15%
Classe X01%01%01%
Proton99%30%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       11 Nov 150
  Prévisionnel   12 Nov-14 Nov  150/145/140
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        11 Nov 172
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 10 Nov  029/041
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 11 Nov  010/015
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  015/020-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 Nov au 14 Nov
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif35%30%25%
Tempête mineure25%15%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère10%05%05%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif25%25%25%
Tempête mineure30%20%15%
Tempête majeure/sévère20%15%10%

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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