Affichage des archives de jeudi, 10 août 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Aug 10 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 223 publié à 2200Z le 10 AUG 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST INTERESTING EVENTS
RECENTLY WERE SEEN IN THE CORONA. LATE YESTERDAY A REPORT OF A HALO
CME ASSOCIATED WITH FLARE ACTIVITY IN REGION 9114 (N11W29) WAS
RECEIVED. THE ACTIVITY WAS SEEN TO OCCUR AT 09/1630Z. TODAY A
PARTIAL HALO CME, HEADED NORTH OF THE ECLIPTIC, OCCURRED AT 0654Z.
THIS EVENT WAS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH CHROMOSPHERIC ACTIVITY IN
REGION 9115 (N18W12). PROMINENCE ACTIVITY WAS SEEN AT S14W90 AND
S27W90. SURGING WAS REPORTED AT N11E90. TWO NEW REGIONS CAME FULLY
INTO VIEW, 9124 (S13E64) AND 9125 (N26E69). REGION 9124 IS THE
LIKELY RETURN OF OLD 9087, THE PRODUCER OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY IN JULY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. A
TRANSIENT WAS SEEN TO PASS ACE AT APPROXIMATELY 0400Z, FUELING THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF ACTIVITY SEEN A FEW HOURS LATER. THIS CME DOES NOT
HAVE AN OBVIOUS SOLAR SOURCE. ALTHOUGH THE SOLAR WIND SPEED HAS NOW
RETURNED TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS, THE IMF BZ COMPONENT IS STILL
SOUTHWARD, WITH A MAGNITUDE OF -10 NT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. EFFECTS OF THE HALO CME OF 09 AUGUST ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
LATE IN THE INTERVAL.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 11 AUG au 13 AUG
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 10 AUG 181 Prévisionnel 11 AUG-13 AUG 185/190/195 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 10 AUG 191
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG 010/012-010/012-015/018
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 11 AUG au 13 AUG
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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