Affichage des archives de jeudi, 22 juin 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Jun 22 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 174 publié à 2200Z le 22 JUN 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 9042 (N23W54)
PRODUCED MOST OF TODAY'S C-CLASS EVENTS, INCLUDES THE LARGEST, A
C5/SF AT 0023Z. REGIONS 9040 (N18W73) AND 9046 (N20W21) ALSO
EXHIBITED SUBFLARE LEVEL BRIGHTENINGS DURING THE EVENT REGION 9042
HAS CONTINUED TO DECAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRAILER PORTION OF THE
GROUP. REGION 9046 (N20W21) ALSO CONTRIBUTED A FEW C-CLASS EVENTS
AND HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AREA. NEW REGION 9057 (N14E72)
ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SIMPLE H-TYPE REGION.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 ARE
CONSIDERED TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS PREDOMINATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT THERE WAS ONE ACTIVE
PERIOD FROM 0000-0300Z. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
ACE SPACECRAFT INDICATED A SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING FROM AN
'AWAY' (POSITIVE) CONFIGURATION TO A 'TOWARDS' (NEGATIVE)
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN 0100-1200Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST UNSETTLED TOMORROW, BUT GRADUAL INCREASE TO
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IS ANTICIPATED LATE TOMORROW OR BY THE SECOND
DAY. THE INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS A RESPONSE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 23 JUN au 25 JUN
| Classe M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 22 JUN 180 Prévisionnel 23 JUN-25 JUN 175/175/170 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 22 JUN 186
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUN 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUN 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUN-25 JUN 012/015-015/015-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 23 JUN au 25 JUN
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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