Affichage des archives de dimanche, 26 mars 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Mar 26 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 086 publié à 2200Z le 26 MAR 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M-CLASS
EVENT; AN M2/SF FROM REGION 8926 (S12W55) AT 26/1734UT. THIS EVENT
ALSO PRODUCED A 3 DEGREE LONG, DISAPPEARING SOLAR FILAMENT (DSF)
NEAR THE REGION CENTER AT S11W55. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A C2/SF
AT 25/2205UT. REGION 8921 (S14W02) PRODUCED A C7/1F AT 25/2243UT.
THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS. OTHER
ACTIVE REGIONS INCLUDED: 8916 (N08W30), 8920 (N23W07), 8924
(N10E39), AND 8925 (S18E38), ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED ISOLATED OPTICAL
SUBFLARES. REGIONS 8924 AND 8925 SHOWED AN INCREASE IN SIZE DURING
THE PERIOD AND ALSO DEVELOPED INTO MORE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATIONS.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIOD AT 26/15-1800UT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND
QUIET TO ACTIVE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE INDICATIONS, THAT THE C7/1F EVENT
DESCRIBED ABOVE, COULD HAVE ALSO PRODUCED AN EARTH-DIRECTED CORONAL
MASS EJECTION (CME). THESE INDICATORS AND THE REGION'S CENTRAL
POSITION AT THE TIME OF THE EVENT COMBINE TO PRODUCE POSSIBLE
GEOEFFECTIVE CONDITIONS. IMAGES FROM THE SOHO/LASCO SPACECRAFT WERE
NOT AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THE EVENT, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
VERIFY THE PRESENCE OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 27 MAR au 29 MAR
| Classe M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 26 MAR 211 Prévisionnel 27 MAR-29 MAR 205/200/200 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 26 MAR 177
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 MAR 005/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 MAR 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 MAR-29 MAR 008/008-020/025-020/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 27 MAR au 29 MAR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 60% | 60% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 70% | 70% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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