Affichage des archives de jeudi, 28 octobre 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Oct 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 301 publié à 2200Z le 28 OCT 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE DEPARTURE OF REGION 8737
NEAR SW13 AND THE SIMPLIFICATION OF REGION 8739 (S11W37) CAUSED
FLARE COUNTS TO FALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
OCCURRED, THE MOST NOTABLE EVENT BEING A C1/SF FROM 8739 AT 0457Z.
NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8747 (N10E59) HAS BRIGHT PLAGE AND DID PRODUCE
A FEW SUBFLARES DURING THE INTERVAL.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ALTHOUGH SEEMINGLY MORE BENIGN, REGION 8739 MAY STILL
GENERATE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING
THE DAY. ABOUT 1200Z, SOLAR WIND PLASMA AND MAGNETIC FIELD
EXPERIENCED A CHANGE AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT, RESULTING IN THE
DISTURBED LEVELS SEEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THESE
DATA SUGGEST A GLANCING BLOW BY A TRANSIENT AS THE CAUSE OF THE
ELEVATED ACTIVITY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS FROM 1330-1630Z,
APPROXIMATELY.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EPISODIC MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE DURING LOCAL
NIGHTTIME HOURS. A HIGH SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO PROLONG THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH OCTOBER 31.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 OCT au 31 OCT
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 OCT 184 Prévisionnel 29 OCT-31 OCT 175/165/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 OCT 157
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 OCT 010/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 OCT 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 OCT-31 OCT 020/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 OCT au 31 OCT
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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