Affichage des archives de mercredi, 6 octobre 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Oct 06 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 279 publié à 2200Z le 06 OCT 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8720 (N13E29)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
NEW SPOTS DEVELOPED IN THIS RE-EMERGING REGION. OTHER REGIONS WERE
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. DURING THE PERIOD, A MODERATELY LARGE REGION
OF ENHANCED X-RAY EMISSION BECAME VISIBLE BETWEEN NE20-30 INDICATING
THE IMMINENT ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SUNSPOT REGION TO THE VISIBLE DISK.
A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION CENTERED NEAR SE45 BEGAN NEAR
06/0000Z. THE PROPAGATION VELOCITY WAS VERY SLOW AND TRAJECTORY WAS
RADIAL.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A LOW
LEVEL M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE NEW REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST LIMB MAY ELEVATE ACTIVITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY BUT IT IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO ASSESS ITS POTENTIAL.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DROPPED BELOW 500 KM/S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A
CORONAL HOLE RELATED HIGH SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING
THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 07 OCT au 09 OCT
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 06 OCT 134 Prévisionnel 07 OCT-09 OCT 138/142/146 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 06 OCT 154
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 OCT 011/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT 012/012-012/010-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 07 OCT au 09 OCT
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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