Affichage des archives de dimanche, 29 août 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Aug 29 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 241 publié à 2200Z le 29 AUG 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A C9/1N FROM REGION 8681 (N22W03) AT 29/1731Z. THIS
REGION CONTINUED TO EMERGE RAPIDLY AND EXHIBITED AN ABNORMAL
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION OF A NEGATIVE ISLAND SURROUNDED BY POSITIVE
POLARITY. REGION 8674 (S23W40) STABILIZED. THE LARGEST EVENT IT
PRODUCED WAS A C4/SF AT 29/1229Z. THIS REGION MAINTAINED THE
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IT HAS EXHIBITED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
BUT IT SHOWED NO REGION DYNAMICS SUCH AS GROWTH AND SPOT PROPER
MOTION. THE X1 FLARE AT 28/1805Z PRODUCED A LARGE CORONAL MASS
EJECTION THAT MOVED SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
MODERATE. REGION 8674 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING M-CLASS
AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL X-CLASS EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE FREQUENCY OF
EVENTS SHOULD LESSEN AS THIS REGION BEGINS A SLOW PERIOD OF DECAY.
REGION 8681 SHOULD PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS AND NOW POSSESSES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DECLINED DURING THE PERIOD TO JUST OVER 500 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WERE HIGH.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NONE OF MANY
RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH
HEAD-ON BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLANKS OF SOME OF THE CMES COULD
REACH THE EARTH. THEREFORE, ISOLATED ACTIVE, TO POSSIBLY MINOR
STORM, PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR 1-2 MORE DAYS. THE
POSSIBLY EXISTS FOR A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. REGION
8674 IS THE PROBABLE SOURCE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 30 AUG au 01 SEP
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 29 AUG 218 Prévisionnel 30 AUG-01 SEP 220/217/197 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 29 AUG 168
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG 011/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP 010/012-012/015-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 30 AUG au 01 SEP
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Dernières nouvelles
lundi, 22 avril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
samedi, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
mercredi, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Forum
Filaments and prominences 68ionosphere D detection 12Unspecified geomagnetic activity 959Latest SC25 Predictions 105AR3654 44
Plus de messages du forumAidez SpaceWeatherLive.com !
Vous êtes de plus en plus nombreux à consulter SpaceWeatherLive pour suivre l'activité solaire ou aurorale, et avec le traffic les coûts du serveur augmentent. Si vous appréciez SpaceWeatherLive, soutenez notre projet en faisant un don afin que nous puissions continuer à vous informer !
La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Dernière classe M | 01/05/2024 | M1.8 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 26/04/2024 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| avril 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 148.1 +49.1 |