Affichage des archives de mercredi, 7 avril 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Apr 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 097 publié à 2200Z le 07 APR 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8508 (N22E25) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 07/0924Z. THIS REGION WAS STABLE BUT RETAINED MIXED
MAGNETIC POLARITIES. A LONG DURATION C1 EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
06/2335-07/0115Z. THIS EVENT WAS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AS SEEN IN SOHO
CORONAGRAPH DATA. REGION 8506 (S26W55) DECAYED AND SIMPLIFIED DURING
THE PERIOD.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8508 REMAINS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AN OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THE MOST
DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 07/0000-0300Z. AT THAT TIME, SOLAR WIND
DATA DID NOT INDICATE A CME LIKE SIGNATURE. THIS SLIGHT DISTURBANCE
APPEARED TO BE RELATED TO A CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWARD ORIENTED
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR 08-09 APR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED ON 08 APR FROM MULTIPLE MASS EJECTIONS OBSERVED ON 04
APR. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 10 APR. THE
ENERGETIC ELECTRON ENHANCEMENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD DECAY
TO NORMAL LEVELS IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 APR au 10 APR
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 APR 141 Prévisionnel 08 APR-10 APR 142/143/139 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 APR 134
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR 015/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 APR au 10 APR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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