Affichage des archives de samedi, 28 novembre 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Nov 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 332 publié à 2200Z le 28 NOV 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8395 (N20E33)
PRODUCED A X3/3N AT 28/0552Z. THIS EVENT HAD TYPE II/IV SWEEPS AND
MODERATE CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURST INCLUDING 3600 SFU'S AT 2695 MHZ. A
PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE. OBSERVATORIES
REPORTED SOME SPOT GROWTH PRIOR TO THE FLARE. REGION 8395 IS NOW A
MODERATELY COMPLEX F-TYPE GROUP WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION. IT PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES SHORTLY AFTER THE X3/3N,
BUT HAS BEEN MOSTLY STABLE SINCE 28/1400Z. REGION 8393 (S18E12)
DISPLAYED A BIT OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT WAS STABLE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8395 HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE FIELD OF NEAR FLARE
INTENSITY PLAGE SINCE THE X-FLARE TODAY. FREQUENT SUBFLARES,
FLUCTUATIONS, AND SURGES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8393 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH DAY 1. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
M1/2N FLARE EARLY ON THE 27TH MAY CAUSE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY 2
AND 3.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 NOV au 01 DEC
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 NOV 165 Prévisionnel 29 NOV-01 DEC 165/165/170 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 NOV 132
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 NOV 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC 005/010-015/018-012/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 NOV au 01 DEC
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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