Affichage des archives de mercredi, 11 novembre 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Nov 11 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 315 publié à 2200Z le 11 NOV 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. TWO
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARES OCCURRED AT 11/0407Z AND 11/1016Z.
THE PROBABLE SOURCE FOR THESE TWO EVENTS ARE DEPARTED REGION 8375
(N21W96). SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD WERE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO REGION 8375. REGION 8384 (S27E54) HAS SHOWN ITSELF
WITH A LARGE PENUMBRAL AREA AND SEVERAL UMBRAE. IT IS LIKELY ONE OF
THESE UMBRAE IS OF OPPOSITE POLARITY BUT THAT LIKELIHOOD COULD NOT
BE VERIFIED. A MODERATELY LARGE, HIGH LATITUDE, FILAMENT LOCATED
NEAR N43W48 FADED BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 11/1100-1400Z. NEW REGION
8385 (N19W29) EMERGED BETWEEN TWO EXISTING REGIONS. THE GROWTH RATE
OF THIS REGION WAS LOW TO MODERATE.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND
TOWARD LOW LEVELS AS REGION 8375 ROTATES FARTHER BEHIND THE WEST
LIMB. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR 12-13 NOV FROM
THAT AREA. REGION 8384 COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE C AND POSSIBLY M-CLASS
EVENTS. AT THIS TIME, NEW REGION 8385 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT FLARE PRODUCER. HOWEVER, CONTINUED GROWTH COULD BEGIN A
PERIOD OF INTERACTION WITH OTHER NEARBY REGIONS AND AN INCREASE IN
FLARE PRODUCTIVITY.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BRIEFLY REACHED HIGH LEVELS AROUND
11/1630Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 12 NOV. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 13-14 NOV. ISOLATED MINOR STORM
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT INTERVAL. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
UPON A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 NOV au 14 NOV
| Classe M | 60% | 35% | 20% |
| Classe X | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 11 NOV 147 Prévisionnel 12 NOV-14 NOV 142/140/140 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 11 NOV 132
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV 003/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV 008/010-015/020-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 NOV au 14 NOV
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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