Affichage des archives de mercredi, 4 novembre 1998

Rapport d'activité solaire

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 308 publié à 2200Z le 04 NOV 1998

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI, BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON 02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376 LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT 04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER 6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 NOV au 07 NOV
Classe M30%30%30%
Classe X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       04 NOV 141
  Prévisionnel   05 NOV-07 NOV  145/150/150
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        04 NOV 132
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV  ???/???
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV  020/???-020/???-010/???
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 NOV au 07 NOV
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif35%35%15%
Tempête mineure15%15%05%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%01%01%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif50%50%20%
Tempête mineure25%25%15%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%01%01%
From [email protected] Wed Nov 4 17:41:46 1998 Received: by proton.sel.noaa.gov (1.37.109.18/16.2) id AA229939306; Wed, 4 Nov 1998 17:41:46 -0500 Return-Path: Date: Wed, 4 Nov 1998 22:40:04 GMT From: Space Environment Center Message-Id: <[email protected]> To: [email protected] Subject: RSGA Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sender: [email protected] Precedence: bulk :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 1998 Nov 04 2240 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVIT : : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : : : : : : : : SDF numéro 308 publié à 2200Z le 04 NOV 1998

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI, BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON 02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376 LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT 04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER 6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 NOV au 07 NOV
Classe M30%30%30%
Classe X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       04 NOV 141
  Prévisionnel   05 NOV-07 NOV  145/150/150
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        04 NOV 132
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV  7/7
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV  20/12-20/15-15/10
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 NOV au 07 NOV
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif35%35%15%
Tempête mineure15%15%05%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%01%01%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif50%50%20%
Tempête mineure25%25%15%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%01%01%

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