Affichage des archives de mercredi, 7 octobre 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Oct 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 280 publié à 2200Z le 07 OCT 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8355 (S21E64)
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY. SEVEN
C-CLASS AND TWO M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED. AN M1/1N OCCURRED AT
07/1247Z AND A M2/SF AT 07/1712Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS PREVENTING AN
ACCURATE ANALYSIS BUT EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST A STRONG MAGNETIC
GRADIENT EXISTS AND A DELTA CONFIGURATION LIKELY EXIST IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THIS REGION. REGION 8350 (N19E02) CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MINOR SUBFLARING BUT HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TWO
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8354 (S18E00), AND REGION 8355
(S21E64).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8355 IS STILL DEVELOPING. FURTHER M-CLASS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AND IF GROWTH CONTINUES AT ITS PRESENT RATE,
X-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. SOLAR
WIND SPEED HAS BEEN ON A STEADY INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY'S SHOCK WAS
OBSERVED AT L1 AT 06/1530Z. BZ FINALLY WENT SOUTHWARD AROUND 07/10Z
AND ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE PRESENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 OCT au 10 OCT
| Classe M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 OCT 124 Prévisionnel 08 OCT-10 OCT 130/135/138 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 OCT 129
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 OCT 002/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 OCT 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 OCT-10 OCT 015/015-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 OCT au 10 OCT
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 15% | 08% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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