Affichage des archives de jeudi, 4 juin 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Jun 04 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 155 publié à 2200Z le 04 JUN 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/2308Z AND REGION 8232 (S19E50) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 04/2039Z. REGIONS 8232 AND 8233 (N28E49) BOTH PRODUCED
SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. MAGNETICALLY, REGION 8232
SHOWED SEVERAL ISOLATED POLES INDICATING SOME MIXING OF POLARITIES
BUT OVERALL THE REGION WAS STABLE. THE RATE OF EMERGENCE OF REGION
8233 SLOWED. A SMALL NEW REGION EMERGED NEAR N16E66 AND WAS NUMBERED
AS REGION 8234. BETWEEN 03/2130-2257Z, A REPORT WAS RECEIVED OF A
LARGE DISAPPEARING FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR S40E70. NO CME WAS OBSERVED
COINCIDENT WITH THIS EVENT.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW. REGION 8232 SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES AND IS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT A FEW HIGH LATITUDE SITES. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE APPROACHING HIGH LEVELS
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 05-06 JUN.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 JUN au 07 JUN
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 JUN 112 Prévisionnel 05 JUN-07 JUN 113/114/112 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 JUN 109
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUN 012(EST.)/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUN 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUN-07 JUN 010/014-010/012-007/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 JUN au 07 JUN
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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