Affichage des archives de dimanche, 10 mai 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 May 10 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 130 publié à 2200Z le 10 MAY 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE WAS DETECTED AT 10/0826UT.
NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8220 (S31E82) PRODUCED AN M3/SF FLARE AT
10/1320UT ACCOMPANIED BY A 300 SFU TENFLARE. A LOOP PROMINENCE
SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THE FLARE AS WELL. THE REGION'S
LEADER SPOT BEGAN TO ROTATE INTO VIEW LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
APPEARED AS A MATURE H-, PERHAPS K-TYPE (DETAILS WERE DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN DUE TO LIMB PROXIMITY). SPACE-BASED EUV AND X-RAY IMAGES
SHOWED A MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
REGION. REGION 8214 (N26W84) WAS STABLE AS IT BEGAN TO CROSS THE
WEST LIMB. REGION 8218 (S20E22) REMAINED A STABLE E-TYPE.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8220 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
FLARES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION
AS WELL.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON FLUX REMAINED ENHANCED FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FLARE, BUT
GRADUALLY DECLINED TOWARDS BACKGROUND LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
BACKGROUND LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 11 MAY au 13 MAY
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 10 MAY 107 Prévisionnel 11 MAY-13 MAY 108/108/108 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 10 MAY 108
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY 008/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY 012/010-012/010-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 11 MAY au 13 MAY
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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