Affichage des archives de jeudi, 7 mai 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 May 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 127 publié à 2200Z le 07 MAY 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8214 (N26W47)
PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS TODAY: AN M2/1B FLARE AT 1116Z AND AN
M1/SF AT 1350Z. THIS GROUP PRODUCED ADDITIONAL SUBFLARE LEVEL
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE PART OF THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE
LARGEST SPOT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE. TOTAL SUNSPOT AREA FOR
THIS REGION HAS BEEN STEADY OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS SUGGESTING THAT
THE INITIAL GROWTH PHASE HAS ENDED. REGION 8218 (S22E61) HAS ROTATED
MORE CLEARLY INTO VIEW AS A DAO SUNSPOT GROUP AND ALSO PRODUCED
OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES INCLUDING A C4/SF AT 0739Z. REGION 8210
(S15W85) IS ROTATING QUIETLY AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
EITHER OF REGION 8210 OR 8214. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY FROM THESE REGIONS AS WELL.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A PERIOD OF
MINOR SUBSTORMING WAS SEEN AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN 0900-1330Z. THE
PROTON EVENT AT >= 10 MEV THAT STARTED AT 06/0835Z ENDED AT
07/0140Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX CONTINUES TO BE AT
HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DISTURBED TOMORROW DUE TO ARRIVAL OF TRANSIENT
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CME EVENTS THAT OCCURRED ON 06 MAY AT 0002Z
AND 0829Z. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORM INTERVALS AT HIGH
LATITUDES. THE INTENSE PART OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TOMORROW, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SUBSTORMING IS LIKELY TO LINGER MIDWAY
THROUGH THE SECOND DAY. UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY
THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 MAY au 10 MAY
| Classe M | 75% | 65% | 65% |
| Classe X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 MAY 123 Prévisionnel 08 MAY-10 MAY 120/115/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 MAY 107
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAY 005/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAY 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAY-10 MAY 045/050-015/025-010/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 MAY au 10 MAY
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 55% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 65% | 25% | 05% |
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