Affichage des archives de dimanche, 3 mai 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 May 03 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 123 publié à 2200Z le 03 MAY 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
REGIONS 8210 (S17W34) AND 8214 (N27E07) HAVE EACH PRODUCED C-CLASS
X-RAY EVENTS. NUMEROUS TYPE III RADIO BURSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
REGION 8210 HAS STABILIZED IN GROWTH AND HAS LESSENED IN MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY TO A BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8214 HAS INCREASED
IN AREA AND DOUBLED IN SPOT COUNT SINCE YESTERDAY BUT STILL HAS A
SIMPLE (BETA) MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND
LIMBS WERE QUIET. SOHO EIT IMAGES INDICATE NEW ACTIVITY OVER THE
EAST LIMB THAT WILL SOON ROTATE INTO VIEW.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE BASED ON THE COMBINED FLARE POTENTIAL IN REGIONS 8210 AND
8214.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE BEGAN ON 01 MAY AND IS
ATTRIBUTED TO A SIGNIFICANT SOLAR EVENT ON 29 APRIL. SOLAR WIND DATA
FROM THE NASA/ACE SPACECRAFT SHOWED THAT THE SOLAR MASS EJECTION
PLASMA HAS NOW PASSED EARTH. A SMALL DISCONTINUITY IN THE SOLAR WIND
PASSED ACE AT APPROXIMATELY 1700 UT. THIS DISCONTINUITY WAS SEEN AS
A SUDDEN IMPULSE IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD AT ABOUT 1744 UT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW BLAST
OF SOLAR MATERIAL FROM THE MAJOR EVENT (X1 PROTON FLARE AND
PARTIAL-HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION) OF 2 MAY. SHOCK ARRIVAL IS
EXPECTED NEAR MID-DAY ON 04 MAY, AND MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM
CONDITIONS SHOULD ENSUE ON 5 MAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ENERGETIC PROTON
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END ON 04 MAY, BUT NEW SOLAR ACTIVITY FROM
REGION 8210 WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER PROTON EVENT BECAUSE OF ITS
FAVORABLE LONGITUDE ON THE SUN.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 04 MAY au 06 MAY
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 50% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 03 MAY 117 Prévisionnel 04 MAY-06 MAY 130/140/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 03 MAY 105
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY 041/056 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY 045/055 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY 020/043-050/055-025/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 04 MAY au 06 MAY
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 10% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 60% | 20% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 10% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 65% | 20% |
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