Affichage des archives de jeudi, 30 avril 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Apr 30 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 120 publié à 2200Z le 30 APR 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8210 (S16E03)
PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. THIS REGION MAINTAINED SOME MIXED
POLARITIES AND OVERALL WAS STABLE. THE TYPE IV RADIO BURST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE M6/3B FLARE ON 29 APR REMAINED IN PROGRESS
THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW
WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 8210. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT IS POSSIBLE. THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER X-CLASS EVENT
BEFORE WEST LIMB TRANSIT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS BECOMING LESSENED
AS THE REGION SIMPLIFIES MAGNETICALLY.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL A 31 NT SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS
OBSERVED AT 30/0933Z. THIS WAS PRECEDED BY A SHOCK PASSAGE AT THE
ACE SPACECRAFT AT 30/0845Z. AFTER THE SUDDEN IMPULSE, UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BELIEVED TO BE
RELATED TO THE X1/HALO CME OBSERVED ON 27 APR. A WEAK ENERGETIC
PROTON (GT 10 MEV) ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT 30/0405Z. MAXIMUM FLUX WAS 2
PFU. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE M6/HALO CME OBSERVED ON
29 APR. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE
PREDOMINANTLY HIGH.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 01 MAY. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME. A LARGER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST FOR 02-03 MAY AS
A RESULT OF M6/HALO CME OBSERVED YESTERDAY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS AT MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT PROTON ENHANCEMENT SHOULD DECAY TO BACKGROUND LEVELS IN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 01 MAY au 03 MAY
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 30 APR 103 Prévisionnel 01 MAY-03 MAY 104/106/108 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 30 APR 104
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 APR 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 APR 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAY-03 MAY 020/018-030/030-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 01 MAY au 03 MAY
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 40% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 20% | 05% |
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