Affichage des archives de mardi, 28 avril 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Apr 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 118 publié à 2200Z le 28 APR 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED PRECIPITOUSLY TO A VERY LOW
LEVEL. ONLY B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8210 (S17E31)
RETAINED ITS DELTA CONFIGURATION, DEVELOPED ADDITIONAL MIXED
POLARITIES, AND EXHIBITED MINOR GROWTH. H-ALPHA FIBRIL AND VECTOR
MAGNETOGRAPH DATA INDICATE STRONG SHEAR IN THIS REGION WHERE THE
DELTA IS LOCATED. A FILAMENT IN THIS REGION FADED RAPIDLY BETWEEN
28/1851-1914Z. TWO SMALL REGIONS EMERGED ON THE DISK NEAR S30W64 AND
S25E55 AND WERE NUMBERED AS REGIONS 8212 AND 8213 RESPECTIVELY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW TO
MODERATE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8210 RETAINS THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ANOTHER SMALL X-CLASS EVENT. OLD REGION 8194
WILL BE RETURNING TO THE EAST LIMB NEAR S18 AROUND 01 MAY. THIS
REGION PRODUCED A LONG DURATION M1 FLARE ON 20 APR FROM SEVERAL DAYS
BEYOND THE WEST LIMB THAT RESULTED IN A LARGE SOLAR PROTON EVENT AT
EARTH. ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE UPON THE RETURN OF THIS REGION.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD TO BELOW 400 KM/S INDICATING AN END OF
THE CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE PREDOMINANTLY
HIGH.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL NEAR MIDDAY ON 29 APR WHEN A HALO CME
RELATED DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FROM THAT TIME AND THROUGH 30 APR.
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE. PREDOMINANTLY
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 01 MAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THE EARTH.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 APR au 01 MAY
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 APR 098 Prévisionnel 29 APR-01 MAY 099/100/103 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 APR 104
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 APR 012/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 APR 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 APR-01 MAY 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 APR au 01 MAY
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 40% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 05% |
Dernières nouvelles
lundi, 22 avril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
samedi, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
mercredi, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Forum
AR3654 5Unspecified geomagnetic activity 948Changelog/Featurelog 154What are these long and thin eruptions? 9IMF - BT strength 8
Plus de messages du forumAidez SpaceWeatherLive.com !
Vous êtes de plus en plus nombreux à consulter SpaceWeatherLive pour suivre l'activité solaire ou aurorale, et avec le traffic les coûts du serveur augmentent. Si vous appréciez SpaceWeatherLive, soutenez notre projet en faisant un don afin que nous puissions continuer à vous informer !
La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Dernière classe M | 27/04/2024 | M2.1 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 26/04/2024 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 136.8 +28.6 |