Affichage des archives de samedi, 21 mars 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Mar 21 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
COR **********CORRECTED COPY********** SDF numéro 080 publié à 2200Z le 21 MAR 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8179 (S22W82) PRODUCED
A SINGLE C1/SF FLARE AT 21/1826Z. TWO UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY
BURSTS WERE DETECTED AS WELL, A C1 AT 21/0252Z AND A C1 AT 21/0531Z.
REGION 8179 IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
REGION 8180 (S29W71), SPOTLESS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, SHOWED A
RE-EMERGED, REVERSE POLARITY BXO SPOT GROUP TODAY. REGION 8185
(S24E71) CONTINUED TO GROW AS IT APPEARED OVER THE EAST LIMB.
INDICATIONS ARE THERE ARE MORE SPOTS TO FOLLOW IN THIS REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SPOTS GROUPS, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE
DISK, WERE QUIET AND RELATIVELY STABLE.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8179 STILL HAS GOOD C-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL, A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE. REGION 8185 HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS
ACTIVITY, A SMALL CHANCE OF M-CLASS FLARING, AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM AT ALL LATITUDES FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING BEGAN JUST AFTER
21/0900Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE THE RESULT OF A CME INDICATED BY THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF A 23 DEGREE FILAMENT IN THE SE QUADRANT, DETECTED
AT 16/1147Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT
NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS,
THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MINOR TO MAJOR
STORMING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 22 MAR au 24 MAR
| Classe M | 45% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 21 MAR 126 Prévisionnel 22 MAR-24 MAR 124/122/120 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 21 MAR 098
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAR 008/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAR 028/032 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAR-24 MAR 015/018-010/012-015/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 22 MAR au 24 MAR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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