Affichage des archives de vendredi, 12 décembre 1997
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1997 Dec 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
::::::::::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::::::::: SDF numéro 346 publié à 2200Z le 12 DEC 1997IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8119 (N33W49), AN 8 SPOT
DAO GROUP, PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 12/0713UT. REGION 8122 (N31W18), A 14
SPOT DSO GROUP, PRODUCED OCCASIONAL B-CLASS SUBFLARES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. BOTH THESE REGIONS ARE THE LIKELY SOURCES OF THREE
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS FLARES THAT OCCURRED BETWEEN 12/1046 -
12/1218UT. ALL THREE OF THESE C-CLASS FLARES APPEARED DURING A
PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED X-RAY EMISSIONS BETWEEN 12/1000 -
12/1300UT. THE ENHANCMENT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A
LONG, APPROXIMATELY 50 DEGREE, FRAGMENTED FILAMENT FROM THE SW
QUADRANT. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8119 EXHIBITED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE
YESTERDAY BUT IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARING. REGION 8122 HAS STABILIZED SINCE ITS DRAMATIC GROWTH
YESTERDAY AND IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARING.
OLD REGION 8108 IS ROUNDING THE EAST LIMB BUT APPEARS MUCH WEAKER
THAN ITS LAST TRANSIT ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 DEC au 15 DEC
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 DEC 093 Prévisionnel 13 DEC-15 DEC 094/095/095 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 DEC 093
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 DEC 011/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 DEC 003/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 DEC-15 DEC 010/008-010/008-010/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 DEC au 15 DEC
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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