Affichage des archives de vendredi, 7 novembre 1997
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1997 Nov 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 311 publié à 2200Z le 07 NOV 1997IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST (AND ONLY) C-CLASS
FLARE OF THE PAST DAY WAS A C1/SF IN REGION 8103 (N22W33) AT
07/0926Z. THIS REGON IS GROWING SLOWLY BUT REMAINS A SMALL,
RELATIVELY SIMPLE SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8100 (S19W77) HAS BEEN QUIET
SINCE YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FLARE, ONLY PRODUCING A FEW SMALL SUBFLARES.
THIS REGION APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS; HOWEVER, ITS PROXIMITY TO THE WEST LIMB MAKES A COMPLETE
ANALYSIS DIFFICULT.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8103. REGION
8100 MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE BEFORE ITS DISK DEPARTURE BUT
THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. MAJOR
TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED AT MOST STATIONS DURING
THE 07/0000-0600Z PERIODS FOLLOWING AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVAL
AND SUDDEN STORM COMMENCEMENT (SSC) AT 06/2252Z. THIS SHOCK IS
PRESUMED TO BE RELATED TO THE X2/2B FLARE OF 04 NOV. THE GREATER
THAN 10 MEV AND GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENTS GENERATED FROM
YESTERDAY'S X9/2B FLARE REMAIN IN PROGRESS. PROTON EVENT
PARTICULARS: GREATER THAN 10 MEV START 06/1305Z AND PEAK (490 PFU)
07/0250Z; GREATER THAN 100 MEV START 06/1245Z AND PEAK (51 PFU)
06/1640Z. THE PCA CONTINUES IN PROGRESS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED STORM
CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THE X9/2B FLARE DUE TO THE
FLARE LOCATION AND THE PRESUMED DIRECTION OF THE ASSOCIATED CME.
HOWEVER, IF THE SHOCK ENCOUNTERS THE EARTH TOMORROW, AS EXPECTED,
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY BE ENHANCED TO ACTIVE TO
STORM LEVELS. THE PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PROGRESS
THROUGH TOMORROW AS FLUXES SLOWLY RETURN TO BACKGROUND.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 NOV au 10 NOV
| Classe M | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Classe X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 NOV 094 Prévisionnel 08 NOV-10 NOV 090/085/080 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 NOV 090
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 NOV 013/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 NOV 030/045 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 NOV-10 NOV 030/035-015/030-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 NOV au 10 NOV
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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