Affichage des archives de mercredi, 5 novembre 1997
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1997 Nov 05 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 309 publié à 2200Z le 05 NOV 1997IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8100 (S20W53) GENERATED
SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PAST DAY. THE LARGEST FLARE
OBSERVED IN 8100 WAS A C7/1N PEAKING AT 05/0637Z. THIS REGION
REMAINS A LARGE (NEAR 1000 MILLIONTHS) COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP (FKC
SPOT CLASS). MIXED MAGNETIC POLARITIES AND THE DELTA SUNSPOT
CONFIGURATION PERSIST. REGION 8103 (N23W03) GREW SOMEWHAT SINCE
YESTERDAY AND PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 05/1849Z.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FREQUENT,
PRIMARILY IN REGION 8100 ALTHOUGH REGION 8103 MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW
C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8100 REMAINS CAPABLE OF MAJOR SOLAR ACTIVITY
AND COULD PRODUCE AN M5 OR GREATER X-RAY FLARE.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MOST LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT SOME HIGH-LATITUDE
STATIONS. THE PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV HAS ENDED (START:
04/0830Z, PEAK-72PFU: 04/1120Z, END:05/1125Z).
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REACH STORM CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW DUE TO THE SOLAR
ACTIVITY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. ELEVATED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 8 NOVEMBER. ANOTHER PROTON EVENT AT GREATER
THAN 10 MEV IS LIKELY IF REGION 8100 PRODUCES ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 06 NOV au 08 NOV
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 05 NOV 114 Prévisionnel 06 NOV-08 NOV 115/110/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 05 NOV 089
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 NOV 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 NOV 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 NOV-08 NOV 025/035-050/060-030/040
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 06 NOV au 08 NOV
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 20% | 20% |
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