Avaruussääennuste - Perusteet

Julkaistu: 2024 May 05 0030 UTC
Laatija: Yhdysvaltain kauppaministeriö, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center ja käsittelijä SpaceWeatherLive.com

Auringon aktiivisuus

24 h yhteenveto

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N26W16, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M9.1/1b flare (R2/Moderate) at 04/0619 UTC and a M9.0 flare at 04/2348 UTC. A Type II (est. 950 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep, along with a Tenflare, were observed with the M9.1. A CME is suspected to be associated with the flare, however, coronagraph imagery is unavailable since 03/2337 UTC due to an apparent outage. Regions 3663 and 3664 (S19E28, Ekc/beta-delta) persisted as the largest and most complex regions on the disk, with minor growth noted in both. New Region 3667 (N28E73, Hsx/alpha) was numbered and the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Other eruptive activity included a C3.9 flare at 03/2037 UTC, with associated Type II (est. 392 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions, from an unspotted area to the east of Region 3666 (N07E02, Cai/beta). The associated CME, first seen in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 03/2218 UTC, has been analyzed as a glancing-blow hit on 09 May.

Ennuste

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor- Moderate), with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), over 05-07 May.

Energiset hiukkaset

24 h yhteenveto

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Ennuste

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 05-07 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 05-07 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Aurinkotuuli

24 h yhteenveto

Ambient solar wind conditions prevailed throughout the period. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 6 nT and the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased throughout the period, from early readings near 400 km/s to around 350-370 km/s.

Ennuste

Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS influences are likely to prevail over 05-07 May. A stronger disturbance is expected late on 05 May and 06 May due to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME.

Geoavaruus

24 h yhteenveto

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Ennuste

Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 05 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME late in the day. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 06 May due to continued CME activity and CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 07 May with the expected onset of another positive polarity CH HSS.