Avaruussääennuste - Perusteet

Julkaistu: 2023 Dec 06 1230 UTC
Laatija: Yhdysvaltain kauppaministeriö, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center ja käsittelijä SpaceWeatherLive.com

Auringon aktiivisuus

24 h yhteenveto

Solar activity continued at moderate levels following several M-Class (R1-R2) flares that originated from Region 3513 (N17E60, Dsi/beta). The largest of the events was an M2 flare at 06/0541 UTC. Region 3513 was also responsible for several mid to upper level C-class flares during the period. Regions 3510 (S15W13, Dai/beta) and 3511 (S23W12, Dao/beta-gamma) both exhibited slight overall growth, with Region 3511 producing a C8/Sf at 05/1803 UTC. A new spotted region emerged on the ENE limb at approximately N10E70. We await detachment observations before assigning a region number. Several filament eruptions were observed during the period. However, none were determined to have an Earth-directed component.

Ennuste

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 06-08 Dec.

Energiset hiukkaset

24 h yhteenveto

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Ennuste

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 06-08 Dec, with high levels possible by 07 Dec due to earlier CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels on 06-08 Dec.

Aurinkotuuli

24 h yhteenveto

Solar wind speed averaged near 600 km/s as negative CH HSS influence continued. Total field strength was between 4-6 nT. Bz fluctuated between +/- 5 nT or less for most of the period. Phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation.

Ennuste

Persistent CH HSS effects are expected to begin tapering off mid to late day on 06 Dec, with conditions returning to near background levels on 07-08 Dec.

Geoavaruus

24 h yhteenveto

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Ennuste

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected, with possible isolated active conditions early on 06 Dec as CH HSS influence persists. Quiet to unsettled levels should return by 07-08 Dec as CH HSS influences dissipate.