Vaata reede, 12 aprill 2013 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2013 Apr 12 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 102 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Apr 2013IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
12/2038Z from Region 1718 (N21W46). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 525 km/s at
12/0311Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/0713Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/2125Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 65 pfu at 11/2120Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 274 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (13 Apr), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (14 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (15
Apr). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 Apr)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (14
Apr, 15 Apr).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Aprkuni 15 Apr
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 12 Apr 138 Prognoositud 13 Apr-15 Apr 135/130/120 90 päeva keskmine 12 Apr 113
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Apr 004/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 12 Apr 005/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 018/026-028/045-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Apr kuni 15 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 45% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 15% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 60% | 35% | 20% |
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