Vaata laupäev, 17 november 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Nov 17 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 322 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 Nov 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C2
event observed at 17/1810Z from Region 1615 (N08W21), a simple Bxo group
with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1613 (S24W19) remained the
most magnetically complex (beta-gamma) of the nine spotted regions on
the visible disk, while Region 1614 (N15W07) remained the largest at 160
millionths. The general downward trend in active region complexity and
size continued today
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a slight chance for moderate activity through the period
(18-20 Nov).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind measured at the ACE
spacecraft began fluctuating between positive and negative sectors
around 17/0655Z, enventually settling into the positive sector after
17/1800Z. About an hour after the fluctuations began, wind speed began
rising from 390 km/s and reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at 17/1444Z.
Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 17/0746Z. The maximum southward component of
Bz reached -4.7 nT at 17/0345Z. These observations were consistent with
the arrival of a weak positive coronal hole high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached 3160
pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods possible
for the next three days (18-20 Nov).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 Novkuni 20 Nov
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 Nov 135 Prognoositud 18 Nov-20 Nov 135/135/135 90 päeva keskmine 17 Nov 120
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 17 Nov 006/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 Nov kuni 20 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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