Vaata pühapäev, 28 oktoober 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Oct 28 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 302 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 Oct 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. The only C class event, a long
duration C1 flare was observed at 28/0805Z. An active region around
the west limb appears to have been the source of the event and LASCO
C2/C3 indicate an associated CME occurred. Analysis of the CME via
LASCO and STEREO indicate that the transient should not affect
Earth. However, further analysis of the CME noted in the forecast
yesterday has determined that there were two separate events, both
from filament eruptions, and both with Earthward trajectories. A
new, but unnumbered region, is beginning to rotate around the
Southeast limb of the disk. All regions currently on the disk were
unchanged or in decay.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
for days one through three (29-31 October).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (29-30 October). Quiet
conditions are expected again on day three (31 October) until the
possible arrival of the CMEs from 27/28 October late in the period,
when an active period is expected at CME onset.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Octkuni 31 Oct
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 Oct 117 Prognoositud 29 Oct-31 Oct 115/115/110 90 päeva keskmine 28 Oct 121
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 Oct 003/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 28 Oct 003/004 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 Oct kuni 31 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 35% |
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