Vaata neljapäev, 20 september 2012 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Sep 20 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 264 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 20 Sep 2012

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1574 (S22W70) produced a C1/Sf flare at 20/1139Z. Over the period, the region grew from a simple unipolar spot to a 4 spot bipolar group. All other spotted regions indicated little change. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (21 - 23 September).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z. The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10 nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active intervals for days one and two (21 - 22 September) as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) remains geoeffective. By day three (23 September), mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected as CH HSS effects wane.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 21 Sepkuni 23 Sep
Klass M15%15%15%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       20 Sep 117
  Prognoositud   21 Sep-23 Sep  115/115/120
  90 päeva keskmine        20 Sep 122
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 19 Sep  013/014
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  010/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  008/012-009/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 21 Sep kuni 23 Sep
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%20%
Väike torm05%05%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%35%25%
Väike torm10%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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