Vaata esmaspäev, 3 september 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Sep 03 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 247 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 Sep 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1560 (N03W33 -
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) and 1564 (S16E26 - Esi/beta-gamma) each
produced occasional C-class flares. Region 1560 increased in
magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma-delta configuration with a delta
evident in its interior spots. Region 1564 was in a gradual growth
phase during the period and increased in magnetic complexity to a
beta-gamma configuration. Region 1553 (S21W82 - Dso/beta) produced
occasional optical subflares as it neared the west limb. New Region
1566 (N24E76 - Hax/alpha) was numbered. There were no Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CME) observed during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (04 - 06 September) with a chance for isolated M-
class flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels with a brief period of severe storm levels detected at high
latitudes. An interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at
03/1123Z indicating the arrival of the Halo CME observed on 31
August. This was followed by a geomagnetic sudden impulse at
03/1214Z (28 nT, Boulder USGS Magnetometer). Field activity
increased to major storm levels during 03/1200 - 1500Z following the
sudden impulse, then decreased to active levels for the rest of the
period, with minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit
that began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum of 60 pfu at 02/0850Z, and
was in progress as the period ended.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (04 September)
with a chance for minor storm levels as CME effects wind down. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected during days 2 - 3 (05 - 06
September) with a chance for active levels due to arrival of
Earth-directed CMEs observed on 02 September along with a
co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS). The CH HSS is expected to commence on day 3. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to end on day 1.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Sepkuni 06 Sep
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 Sep 142 Prognoositud 04 Sep-06 Sep 140/140/135 90 päeva keskmine 03 Sep 124
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 Sep 014/015 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 03 Sep 021/028 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 014/015-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 Sep kuni 06 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
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